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August 19, 2017
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  • Eat More Lard

    I’m surprised you don’t mention stage 13. 101km and 3 Cat 1 climbs. Expect fireworks!

    • Yeah good call. It will be worth watching if you can find the time, for sure. Being more than a week from the finish I’ll wonder if we’ll see any long-range attacks like we would in the final mountain stage. Also, the final climb peaks 27km from the finish and it’s flat after the descent so that might make it harder to get and stay away. Still, it will certainly be worth watching.

  • Andy Logan

    My mate asked me who would win earlier today, In short I said I felt Porte would be that it’s quite an open race. My longer answer is the following:

    For me it’s between Chris Froome and Richie Porte, Porte being my pick. But there are some variables, the last 2 years Froome has looked unbeatable coming into the TdF, winning every race running up to the Tour, now this year Richie Porte has done that (win everything) and although he didn’t win the Dauphine 3 weeks ago (he came 2nd and lost out on time bonus’), on the final stage he rode like a machine, Chris Froome has been dropped on climbs etc, so doesn’t look as strong. His TT’s have not been strong either and he has lost time, Time Trials are not called “The Race of Truth” for no reason and Porte has been flying, Froome, not so much. For Froome though, it could be argued he will build into the race and be very strong by week 3.

    However the TdF is a very defensive race, teams will race for 10th place, it means a lot to sponsors and UCI Points, while at the Dauphine it doesn’t matter to come 10th for example. Sky (Froome) have a much stronger team than BMC (Porte) but Porte has never got a through a 3 week race before and has always had one bad day in a 3 week race. Last year Porte was going well, got a puncture on stage 2, lost 90s and finished 5th on GC, it literally is that easy to lose it. That being said BMC had two leaders last year (Van Garderan and Porte) this year they only have Porte, so the team is dedicated to him.

    Froome has previous form, has won the race twice before and knows how to win it, Porte is the challenger and has never won it, will he cope with the pressure?, will BMC have a team strong enough to support him? All big questions. Bottom line for me, previous form trumps all, Porte has ticked all the boxes of past TdF winners including Froome/Wiggins (has won Romandie, Dauphine and other races) and Porte has been flying in the TT as well. This year in the TdF there are two TT’s 14km at the start and 20kms at the end. Not so many Mountain Top finishes, which means the course is not as suitable to Quintana and Froome for example, Porte is better on the shorter punchier stuff (can win those types of stages as well as longer climbs) Quintana (Movistar) is a no go, did the Giro, came 2nd and worked very hard in that race to drop Demoulin, but couldn’t and lost huge amounts of time in the TT’s, no one has done the Giro/TdF double in the modern era, people think it’s impossible which for me rules out Quintana. All the others have not demonstrated anywhere near the type of form that Porte has. Valverde says he is supporting Quintana, don’t believe it. If there is a chance for a personal podium he will take it. Aru (Astana) blew up big time last year in the 3rd week, Fulgasang (Astana) doesn’t have any proven 3 week race credentials.

    That’s my view, I have some vested interest though, I have Porte at $15 to win back in Jan.

    • Stian Pollestad

      Froome has won the race three times (2013, 2015, 2016).

      • Andy Logan

        Indeed he has. Oversight on my behalf.

    • Steel

      Great write up. Let’s just hope BMC pull for Porte and forget the stage hunting for gva. Sky are way more professional the way they go about it.

      • DaveRides

        Whether the rest of the BMC riders will believe in Porte enough to go all in with him will depend on whether they think Porte himself really believes he can win the Tour.

        If he is not sending those signals, he won’t have any authority over the domestiques and they’ll switch their allegiance to GVA.

  • Andy B

    No one gets in the box and doesnt give up like Froomedog, even on a bad day he knows how to do whats needed
    has to be the favourite
    Anything can happen though :) cant wait

  • De Mac

    I just hope that BMC actually fully support Richie this year – one in all in, unlike last year, where they rode for Van Avermaet, TJ and Richie – dependent upon which stage it was…. Although, the final Dauphine stage a few weeks back did not engender confidence….

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